The console war, place your bets.

[Killarapp]

I decided to put down my predictions on how the 'war' will pan out for the next two years. Lets see if we cant have a debate on this without any fanboyism or stupidity.

First the reason the PS2 dominated in my opinion was due to the variety of software. This is not a strength of the Xbox or the Gamecube with both claiming die hard, focused fans of certain genres. Like Nintendos Mario's and Zelda's or with the xboxs halo iconism and online games.

And thats whats wrong with Microsoft right now, its completely and totally isolated, sold about 12million consoles and out of steam. MS has such a hardcore fanbase who just want shooters and racers that they find themselves alienating other crowds. Sure MS have the hardcore gamer hooked, game sales are impressive but they only cater for the current crowd.

Halo 3 WILL NOT lift many 360's because the group intrested bought a 360 a year early for Gears of war and other shooting online games. It will sell amazingly well as a game but not shift many consoles. By 2008 MS will not have shifted 20 million 360's as they claim. They will have a profitable game buying Xmas but not a console selling Xmas. One or two unsuccessful breaks into other genres have turned out to be financial disasters like Viva Pinata it being one game lost in a console of blood shed and war. MS would need a year or two before it could break out of this brand isolation as it needs to make more games.

Not forgetting its scaring people off with its breakdown horror stories, Only thing the Xbox has going for it sales wise is a possible price drop and the ability to say 'yes that games is also on PS3 but its cheaper to buy a 360 if you want to play it'

Wii however is also giving the competition a fighting chance as they can't get the units out to satisfy demand so far. Whats the point in getting all these none gamers to try a wii in a shop if its sold out? Come Xmas Nintendo will need to market the Wii appropriatly to the masses or it could simply be seen as last years fad due to the medias love of new. If Nintendo can't satisfy this initial demand by Christmas, its going to find itself missing the golden opportunity to push its new product, this time its actually in stock. If thats the case its going to be xmas 3 where their marketing cutting edge technology 3 years old... not recommendable.

Remember getting Grandad to play a Wii is different than getting him to buy a Wii and spend his own money on games / preferals. Nintendo has one hell of a job this xmas with marketing. But will do superbly anyway due to all its key francises providing games such as Brawl, Galaxy and Corruption. I see the Wii selling about 14million by 2008. It stands at 8 millionish. Remember the Wii isn't just appealing to one group of gamers anymore like the 360, everyone wants a slice.

And Sony, well they might be in a tough situation right now but for every PS3 they shift now at high price is better than every 2 they sell after a price drop. So that low 3 million sold so far means about 6 million 360's which was about how good MS was doing a year ago. Sony has the kind of brand perception based on fantasy and exaduration unlike MS. People love to tell lies about Ps3, people love to call PS3 owners rich geeks, with MS everyone knows 360's break all the f***ing time. Sony can overcome this brand problem during time, no doubt they will do competitively this Xmas, most likely with a price drop. Ill predict 8 million with no price drop or 10 with one.

And looking back at my initial point, Sony isn't that eggs in every basket player anymore it needs games first, Nintendo is becoming the console that appeals to the biggest crowd, no doubt will run off with the untieable lead 2008+


And your thoughts?

[wii_man76]

As usual, another great blog entry!

My thoughts are that this Xmas the Wii wont be at the top of the league of most sold consoles, although it wont be that far behind and shops will sell out of the console on a regular basis!

I think Sony will be top of the list, but not necasarily with the PS3, the PS2 has hundreds of games available and I predict it wil be selling for under £50 and topped with loads of games available is an affordable present for most families!

I think Microsoft will come a close 2nd with the different versions of their consoles available and fantastic on-line gaming ability.

One thing that I will predict, is that over the festive season we will see more and more Wii60 owners coming on board as you can have the best of both worlds - fantastic online gaming no the 360 and unrivalled fun on the Wii!

I wonder how correct my predictionsa will be? Only time will tell...

[FooFan]

Inetersting read!

I think you've hit the nail on the head with your predictions Kilarapp, the Wii is in such high demand that there will still be more people wanting a Wii than any other console come Christmas. It's all down to Nintendo and how well they supply the shops.

Some people have been saying that the lack of supply has been part of Nintendo's Strategy to help build up the demand and overall excitement over their product. I'm not sure I agree with them, but it has worked to their advantage either way.

I also think that Wii_man's point about 360 owners will also prove to be correct. Many Wii owners are frustrated at the lack of quality titles at the moment and the almost non-existent online play. If the 360 does drop it's price, I think it's very likely a lot of Wii owners will be picking up the 360 to sit next to their wii

The PS3 has a real dilemma on it's hands and it needs to make a decision fast so they can use the Christmas Period as best as possible. If they can get some top quality games out for it,t hat really use it's power and get everyone talking, then they might have a chance. But as it stands sony don't have many Original titles and publishers are going to be looking more towards the 360 and Wii to produce their games unless Sony can build up some excitement.

Overall, I think it will be a very interesting Xmas period, with the Wii selling the best during that time... If it's available. If it's a choice between waiting for a Wii for Xmas or getting a 360, I think most people would chose the 360, especially if it's a child's present or something...